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Trump's endorsement of candidates cost the Republicans 15 seats, research suggests

Data suggests candidates without president's endorsement perform better in elections

Graig Graziosi
Thursday 28 May 2020 20:09 BST
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President Donald Trump's endorsement of Republicans isn't a sure-fire bet that they'll succeed in their elections, and data suggests it may actually hurt their chances.

Data published by Legislative Studies Quarterly suggests Mr Trump's endorsement by no means guarantees a win for a conservative candidate. Since he took office, the Republican party has lost a total of 15 seats — 11 in the House and four in the Senate — all of whose candidates had Mr Trump's endorsement.

According to the findings, when Mr Trump endorsed a candidate, it inspired increased donations towards the candidate's opponent by their supporters.

"While President Trump's public endorsements provided a financial boost to endorsed candidates, they also increased donor support of opposing candidates and were ultimately detrimental to candidates' vote shares and likelihood of winning," the researchers wrote.

Overall, the researchers found that candidates who were endorsed by the president fared worse in their campaigns than the candidates who Mr Trump did not endorse.

"Endorsed candidates suffered worse electoral outcomes than those not receiving an endorsement - even in Senate races where endorsements led to increases in turnout. Candidates who received a presidential endorsement were less likely to win than those who did not," the researchers wrote.

According to the Washington Post, Mr Trump endorsed 80 House and Senate candidates in 2018, with more than half of them incumbents.

The researchers said that the president's endorsements "have done little to elicit engagement from voters on the Republican side, all the while creating a rallying effect around opposing candidates and increasing engagement among Democratic voters."

Mr Trump's stamp of approval appeared to be more effective at rallying Democratic opposition than bolstering support among his base, according to the research.

There are caveats to the data. The researchers said that the data did not make clear if it was Mr Trump's endorsement that drove Democrats to turn out to vote in higher numbers or if Mr Trump's endorsement was used as a rallying point by Democratic campaigns to mobilise support.

The researchers also allowed for the possibility that the data is not reflective of Mr Trump, personally, but of the larger political moment and his use of Twitter, suggesting the trends were driven by "an unpopular and divisive president using a relatively new and nationalised form of endorsing candidates in a polarised and nationalised electoral context."

Essentially, the data could be reflective more of the political climate and Mr Trump's position within it than a condemnation of Mr Trump himself.

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