Uncertainty and Risk in Development: Quantifying subsurface risk and uncertainty for producing assets

GeoLogica Limited
Course summary
8 hours
650 USD excl. VAT
Full time
Online courses
Professional Training

Course description

Uncertainty and Risk in Development: Quantifying subsurface risk and uncertainty for producing assets

The quantification of risk and uncertainty is often discussed in the context of exploration and appraisal, yet most of the upstream E&P business concerns decision-making in producing assets. Handling uncertainty in development and production must deal with a growing and often imperfect production database against a backdrop of constantly changing circumstances. As the life cycle progresses, initial uncertainties over volume and productivity narrow but are supplanted by new uncertainties such as sweep efficiency, fine scale architecture and changing responses to new production mechanisms and techniques. These new issues demand a change in approach for the quantification of uncertainty, and vigilance is required to avoid the subsurface interpretation simply collapsing on to a best guess.

This short, focused workshop explores the key aspects required to manage subsurface uncertainties and associated risks during the producing field life, in terms of people, tools and approach. It will close with a set of questions to ask yourself and others, suitable for reference in informal personal or team reviews, peer reviews and peer assists.

Suitability - Who should attend?

Designed for geoscientists, reservoir engineers, petrophysicists, well technologists, team leaders and management involved in the quantification of risk and uncertainty in fields under development or in production. The class will provide an opportunity for learning, inspiration and discussion with other modelers.

Outcome / Qualification etc.

  • Resolve misunderstandings over definitions in risk and uncertainty.
  • Understand the key differences between uncertainty and risk in development, compared to exploration and appraisal.
  • Explain and mitigate common errors in handling probability.
  • Describe workflows for handling risk and uncertainty in development decisions.
  • Account for the impact of cognitive bias in E&P, and what to do about it.

Training Course Content


  • The driving issue: decision-making in producing assets
  • The key difference between uncertainty and risk in E&A vs development and production
  • Why it matters some examples


  • People recognizing personality and imperatives, sources of bias, common heuristics and how to minimize them
  • Tools the choice available, balancing simplicity and complexity, determinism and probability, and the pros and cons of each
  • Team approach stitching tools of choice into a coherent methodology, the primacy of the underlying concept, the choice between forward modeling and inversion, and the key to successful team-based approaches beyond initial framing sessions: the Forth Rail Bridge


  • Questions to yourselves and others

Course delivery details

  • 8am-12pm CST
  • Two 3-hour interactive online sessions presented over 2 days (morning sessions for North America, afternoon sessions for Europe). A digital manual and exercise materials will be distributed to participants before the course. Some reading and several exercises are to be completed by participants off-line.

About provider

Providing world-class training for the energy industry, GeoLogica is an experienced team with an extensive network of tutors and instructors on their books. Their expertise spans both subsurface training for the oil and gas industry, as well as training aimed...

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GeoLogica Limited

Oxford Point, 19 Oxford Road
BH8 8GS Bournemouth Dorset

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