Modelling and Managing Uncertainty in the Subsurface

HOT Engineering
Course summary
3 days
3,150 EUR excl. VAT
Next available date: 31/08/2020 - Vienna
Open / Scheduled

Modelling and Managing Uncertainty in the Subsurface

Modelling and Managing Uncertainty in the Subsurface

Modelling and Managing Uncertainty in Subsurface Formation - 3-day Training Course for Oil & Gas Professionals

Uncertainty quantification is a synthesis course that brings together various disciplines such as geology, geophysics, reservoir engineering, data science and decision analysis. Uncertainty quantification is not seen as some posterior analysis, or skill, but as key to successful decision making in real field situations. Participants will learn how a proper management of uncertainty reduces costs and unwanted surprises.

In this short course we cover a modern approach to managing and modelling uncertainty in subsurface formations within a decision making framework. The approach is based on a new book “Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface systems, (Wiley 2018”, and a new protocol for uncertainty quantification termed Bayesian evidential learning. Several elements of this protocol are:

  • Decision making under uncertainty using decision science
  • Development of prior model uncertainty and Monte Carlo
  • Falsification of model uncertainty using reservoir data
  • Strategies for uncertainty reduction that avoid complex and time-consuming history matching

For in-house presentations this course can also be arranged as 5-day "Workshop" with practical exercises.

Suitability - Who should attend?

This training course is aimed at reservoir geologists, geophysicists and engineers who are involved in a multi-disciplinary asset team building uncertainty models for reservoir appraisal and production planning.

Outcome / Qualification etc.

By the end of the course, you will feel confident in your understanding and use of practical workflows for modelling uncertainty and the integration of geological, geophysical and production data for forecasting and decision making.

Training Course Content

  • The course uses practical field studies to guide you through the modelling workflow from geological interpretation to history matching and forecasting
  • In addition to the course manual you will also receive the textbook “Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems” by Jef Caers.

This training course is designed to cover the following units:

  • Bayesiansim: What is uncertainty?
  • Managing uncertainty in the oil & gas industry
  • Decision making under uncertainty using decision science
  • Monte Carlo & Falsification
  • Global sensitivity analysis
  • Model selection and model complexity: addressing the computational challenge
  • Uncertainty quantification with seismic and production data
  • Calculating value of information


The course fee includes tuition, course material, refreshments and lunch per session day and a 100 EURO non-refundable registration fee. Course fees do NOT include accommodation or living costs. Applicable taxes will be added. 

The course is held at a top quality hotel with excellent meeting facilities.

Provider: HOT Engineering

HOTEngineering - Oil & Gas Courses, Reservoir Solutions & Quality Assurance

HOT – World Class Training for Oil & Gas Professionals

HOT is a leading oil and gas training provider and E&P consulting company. We come together as a multidisciplinary team, combining 33 years of training and consulting experience to deliver state of the art public courses, bespoke in-house courses, long-term...

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Reviews by course attendees

Reservoir Engineer at MND
It opens a new area in the industry and changes your view on it.
Engineer at StreamSim Technologies Inc.
Innovation, variety of examples, opportunity to open mind.
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