Petroleum Risk and Decision Analysis - PRD

Course summary
5 days
4,240 - 5,220 USD
Houston, Kuala Lumpur, London
Open / Scheduled

Course description

Good technical and business decisions are based on competent analysis of project costs, benefits and risks. Participants learn the decision analysis process and foundation concepts so they can actively participate in multi-discipline evaluation teams. The focus is on designing and solving decision models. Probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through the calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Monte Carlo simulation is discussed and experienced in detail in a hand-calculation exercise. Project modeling fundamentals and basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. Mathematics is straightforward and mostly involves only common algebra. Emphasis is on practical techniques for immediate application. This is a fast-paced course and recommended for those with strong English listening skills. This course is intended as the prerequisite for the Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling course.

Suitability - Who should attend?

Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, team leaders, economists, and planners.

Training Course Content

Decision Tree Analysis: decision models, value of information (a key problem type emphasized in the course), flexibility and control, project threats and opportunities; Monte Carlo Simulation: Latin hypercube sampling, portfolio problems, optimization, advantages and limitations; Decision Criteria and Policy: value measures, multiple objectives, HSE, capital constraint, risk aversion; Modeling the Decision: influence diagrams, sensitivity analysis, modeling correlations; Basic Probability and Statistics: four fundamental rules including Bayes' rule, calibration and eliciting judgments, choosing distribution types, common misconceptions about probability; Expected Value Concept: foundation for decision policy, features, pitfalls to avoid; Implementing Decision Analysis: problem framing, guidelines for good analysis practice, team analyses, computer tools (discussion and demonstrations), mitigating risks; Evaluating a multi-pay prospect (team exercise)

About provider

PetroSkills - Oil & Gas Training Courses

PetroSkills was founded in 2001 as an alliance between BP, Shell and OGCI, aiming to accomplish a mission of vital importance for the future of the Oil & Gas industry. PetroSkills provide high quality professional training and courses that are...

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Average rating 4.2

Based on 10 reviews

Development Engineer
Enjoyed the explanation of decision trees and how to use them.
Oil and Gas Professional
Excellent teacher!
Reservoir Engineer
I enjoyed the examples quite a bit and they really reinforced the subject matter. I particularly enjoyed the VOI/VII section.
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